Old Course Ballot Odds: What Are Your Real Chances?

The St Andrews Links Trust publishes no ballot success rates. The only published figure is an independent one: Ginger Beer Golf Travel's analysis of the Trust's publicly available daily ballot draws estimated that about 10.54% of visitor (open) ballot entries succeeded on an average day between 1 April and 31 October 2024. That is the number this article, the ballot hub and the ballot calculator all use. The single most useful thing you can do with it is enter on as many days as you can.

What the published count says

Ginger Beer Golf Travel counts the successful and unsuccessful cards in the Trust's daily ballot draws. Its figures for 1 April to 31 October 2024:

Measure	2024	2023
Combined open + local ballot, daily average success rate	15.50%	16.91%
Open (visitor) ballot, estimated daily average success rate	10.54%	11.78%
Local ballot, estimated daily average success rate	45.84%	—
Ballot tee times a day, average (open + local)	24.3	24.7
Open-ballot tee times a day, average	13.7	14.2
Open-ballot cards a day, average	155.7	144.4
Days the ballot ran	144	149

Three things to know before leaning on those numbers:

• They are not official. The analysis says so in terms: the draw is public, but the statistics are neither produced nor approved by the Links Trust.
• The visitor figure is an estimate on top of a count. The draws do not split unsuccessful cards between the open and local ballots, so the 10.54% applies the 91:9 split observed in 2018 and 2019.
• It is an April–October average under the 2024 rules. No month-by-month, weekday or group-size breakdown has been published, and the ballot now closes at 2 pm two days before play and needs at least two players. This article used to carry a month-by-month table and a group-size and day-of-week effect; none of that had a published source, and it has been withdrawn.

Why the odds are what they are

The ballot is a small part of the day's sheet. On the 2024 averages, 13.7 open-ballot tee times a day met about 155.7 open-ballot entries. Much of the rest of the Old Course's day goes to Swilcan Package times (applied for the previous autumn and drawn by lottery), the local ballot and other allocations. The analysis also found demand rising — open-ballot cards up 7.8% a day on 2023 — while ballot tee times fell.

Cumulative probability across multiple days

A single ballot entry is one lottery ticket. The real calculation for visitors staying several days is the probability of at least one win across several independent entries. At the 10.54% average:

Entries	Probability of at least one win
1	11%
3	28%
5	43%
7	54%
10	67%
15	81%

Seven entries is where the odds pass even, which is the same conclusion the analysis draws (it gives 54.14% for seven attempts). A single-day visit with the ballot as the only plan fails nearly nine times in ten; a week of entries gives slightly better than even odds of at least one round. The Old Course is closed on Sundays, so there is no Friday ballot, and a week holds at most six ballot days.

Singles: a separate draw

The ballot needs at least two players. Solo golfers use the Links Trust's Singles Daily Draw, which operates entirely outside the ballot: enter in person at The Old Pavilion or the Links Clubhouse between 9 am and 4 pm on the day before you want to play, and any on-the-day tee times left for single players are allocated from the draw. It replaced the dawn queue at the starter's hut that this article used to describe.

The Trust publishes no success rates for the draw, and we have withdrawn the estimates this section used to carry: the number of places depends on how many groups fell short of four, which varies day by day and is not published. It's a real option, particularly for solo travellers staying locally for multiple days — enter the draw every day you are there.

The Swilcan Package — the guaranteed route

The Links Trust's published route to a guaranteed Old Course tee time is the Swilcan Package: two rounds on consecutive days, one on the Old Course and one on a second Links course, applied for once a year in an autumn window (23 September to 6 October 2026 for the 2027 season) for up to four golfers. It is a lottery too — a draw after the window sets the allocation, and not every applicant is offered a time — but a successful one is guaranteed. This article described an accommodation-linked priority window until September 2026; that was wrong, and the ballot hub carries the current package prices and dates.

The trade-off: you commit to specific dates a year out, and the package price is well above the ballot green fee. It's the right route for visitors for whom certainty matters more than luck. One diary note: in July 2027 The Open returns to St Andrews, the course closes to visitors for several weeks, and the town's rooms go long before the golf does — if your trip is anywhere near that window, read the Open 2027 where-to-stay guide before you book a thing.

What the odds mean in practice

Roughly one visitor entry in ten succeeding on an average day is not an obstacle — it's a reason to plan properly. Visitors who treat the ballot as one element of a St Andrews trip rather than the entire point of it tend to approach it with the right expectations.

The Old Course is genuinely worth the effort. So is the New Course, the Jubilee, Kingsbarns, and Crail — all of which you might end up playing if the ballot doesn't go your way. See our Old Course alternatives guide for where to go when the ballot says no.

Use the ballot probability calculator to model your specific trip: your dates and how many days you can realistically enter.

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