Old Course Ballot Odds: What Are Your Real Chances?

Your chances of getting on the Old Course through the ballot are roughly 8–30% on any single day. The exact figure depends on the month, your group size, and the day of the week. In peak July, the odds are close to the low end. In October, they approach the high end. Across a week-long visit, the cumulative probability of at least one successful ballot rises considerably — which is why timing your trip and entering every day you're eligible is more important than any other single factor.

The monthly breakdown

These figures are estimates derived from player reports, travel operator data, and the published 2024 analysis by Ginger Beer Golf Travel, which calculated a 10.54% daily success rate across a peak-season sample. The Links Trust does not publish official statistics.

Month	Estimated daily success rate	Demand level	Verdict
January	25–35%	Low	Excellent odds; cold but walkable
February	25–35%	Low	Good odds; course often in fine condition
March	20–28%	Low–Medium	Still favourable; weather variable
April	18–25%	Medium	Post-Easter drop; competitive but fair
May	14–20%	Medium–High	Rising demand from late May
June	9–14%	High	Tourist season begins; odds tighten
July	8–12%	Peak	Hardest month; school holidays
August	8–13%	Peak	Similar to July; eases late month
September	12–18%	Medium–High	Sweet spot — odds improving, weather often best
October	18–26%	Medium	Noticeably better odds; fewer visitors
November	22–30%	Low–Medium	Good odds; shortened playing hours
December	28–35%	Low	Best odds of the year; limited daylight

Figures derived from community reports and travel operator data 2022–2025. Course closed Sundays.

Why these odds are what they are

The Old Course runs approximately 80–120 ballot tee times per day (Monday–Saturday), accommodating around 300–450 players depending on group sizes. Against this, peak-season ballot entries routinely reach 3,000–6,000 individual entrants on busy days.

The maths: at 400 available spots and 4,000 entrants, the raw single-player success rate is 10%. At 120 tee times and 6,000 entrants entering as groups of four — giving roughly 1,500 "slots" against 6,000 — the effective rate falls toward 8%.

A proportion of tee times are pre-allocated through the Advance Reservation system (for registered visitors staying in St Andrews accommodation for a minimum number of nights, and society groups). Ballot allocation works from the remainder.

Group size effect

Singles have a structural advantage. Single players are slotted into gaps in the schedule — a tee time with two players can absorb a third and fourth from the ballot. This flexibility means a single entrant takes up less of a tee-time "slot" than a group of four, and the Links Trust can accommodate singles at a higher rate.

In practice:

• A solo entrant has roughly 1.5–2× the chance of a successful ballot compared to a group of four
• A two-ball has a moderate advantage over a four-ball
• A four-ball is the most common entry format but competes with the most entries and needs a full four-player slot

For a group of four travelling together, entering as two separate pairs — then joining up if both succeed — is a common approach. Two successful pairs get the same four players on the course.

Day-of-week effect

Demand is not uniform through the week:

Day	Relative demand	Notes
Monday	Highest	Weekend entries stack up; first weekday tee times most contested
Tuesday	High	Still elevated from weekend entry spike
Wednesday	Medium	Mid-week trough begins
Thursday	Medium–Low	Often the best weekday odds
Friday	Medium	Rising again ahead of weekend
Saturday	High	Weekend day; comparable to Monday

The pattern holds because the ballot is entered the evening before play. Entries for Monday accumulate throughout Sunday — a full day for visitors who have just arrived in St Andrews — making Monday the statistically hardest day.

Cumulative probability across multiple days

A single ballot entry is one lottery ticket. The real calculation for visitors staying several days is the probability of at least one win across multiple independent attempts.

Using a conservative 12% daily success rate (shoulder season, group of four):

Attempts	Probability of at least one win
1 day	12%
3 days	32%
5 days	47%
7 days	57%
10 days	72%

At 12% per day, you need roughly seven attempts to cross the 50% threshold — meaning a week-long trip with daily ballot entries gives you better-than-even odds of getting on at some point.

At the peak-season 8% rate, the threshold rises to around nine attempts. At the off-peak 25% rate, four days gives you better-than-even odds.

This is the maths behind why the Old Course Ballot Calculator emphasises multiple-day trips. A single-day visit to St Andrews with the ballot as your only strategy has a 90% chance of not working in peak season. A full week has a 57% chance of producing at least one round.

Walk-up singles: a separate route

The walk-up single player queue operates entirely outside the ballot. Players queue from approximately 5:30 am at the starter's hut (caddie pavilion). Remaining same-day tee times are allocated from this queue before play begins.

Walk-up success rates are harder to estimate because they depend on how many tee times remain after ballot allocation, which varies day by day. Rough estimates:

• Peak season: 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 chance at walk-up
• Shoulder season: 1-in-5 to 1-in-8
• Off-peak: 1-in-3 to 1-in-4

Walk-up requires arriving very early, tolerating genuine uncertainty, and having flexibility on tee time. It's a real option, particularly for solo travellers staying locally for multiple days.

The advance reservation route

Visitors staying in approved St Andrews accommodation for a qualifying minimum number of consecutive nights can apply for tee times through the Advance Reservation system rather than the ballot. This is a separate priority window that opens well before the season.

The trade-off: advance reservations require booking accommodation in advance (often at higher cost), committing to specific dates, and applying during the correct window. The rate is higher per round than the ballot rate. It's the right route for visitors for whom certainty matters more than luck.

What the odds mean in practice

A 10–15% daily success rate is not an obstacle — it's a reason to plan properly. Visitors who treat the ballot as one element of a St Andrews trip rather than the entire point of it tend to approach it with the right expectations.

The Old Course is genuinely worth the effort. So is the New Course, the Jubilee, Kingsbarns, and Crail — all of which you might end up playing if the ballot doesn't go your way. See our Old Course alternatives guide for where to go when the ballot says no.

Use the ballot probability calculator to model your specific trip: season, days available, group size, and how many attempts you can realistically make.